My latest column for The National, which appeared yesterday, about the events of the last week:

Pandemonium ruled Cairo's centre last week - entire streets were covered in upturned stones, large clouds of acrid tear gas hung in the air, and protesters' chants and drumbeats echoed day and night.

The fighting didn't really stop until after the army was able to make use of a truce to build a wall of concrete blocks and barbed wire, to separate protesters and police. But this has not resolved the crisis. A new spark could rekindle fighting at any time.

The events of recent days are more complicated than the dramatic tale we are told by television news. It is not just about valiant democracy activists versus ageing autocratic generals; not just about Tahrir Square's new Egypt against Hosni Mubarak's old Egypt - though that is part of the story.

It is also about the failure of the political class and about the old regime having created lasting problems that cannot be resolved by well-meaning demonstrators. And it is about a state, which employs millions, fighting to maintain itself.

"Tahrir is not Egypt," the generals argue, and they are right. As much as we may sympathise with the hundreds of thousands who descend into the streets, we cannot say they represent all of a country of 85 million. Likewise, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), with its 20 or so generals, is not Egypt either.

Read the rest here, where I predict the elections will move attention away from Tahrir and towards parliament.

Click to enlargeI've updated my chart from a few days ago to reflect the narrowing of possible positions (from 5 to 3) and the leftward drift of most parties and personalities. At this point, of the major parties only the Muslim Brothers and al-Wafd are not officially backing the protests as far as I can tell. As always, comments, corrections and feedback appreciated. This chart does not show positions on elections — again, for now no party has called for their cancellation (although some revolutionary groups and Mohamed ElBaradei are suggesting an alternative transition plan) and the idea of postponment has only been floated.  

There will be a march to the Egyptian consulate in New York tomorrow to protest this week's violence in Egypt. Details after the jump.

Stop Sales of Tear Gas to the Egyptian Military!

End All US Military Aid to SCAF!

Picket at Point Capital Lookout, Majority Stockholder of

 Tear Gas Manufacturer Combined Systems, Inc.

Friday, November 25^th

3 pm: Meet at Point Lookout Capital,

1370 Avenue of the Americas (6th Avenue) at 56^th Street

4 to 6 pm: March to Egyptian Consulate for Rally

2^nd Avenue between 58^th and 59^th, leaving Point Lookout at 4

The Egyptian military (Supreme Council of the Armed Forces or SCAF) has been using tear gas manufactured in the US by Combined Systems Inc. of Jamestown, Pennsylvania, and paid for by US tax dollars, against peaceful protesters in Tahrir Square in Cairo, as well as in Alexandria, Suez and other cities.

US-paid for bullets have been purposely aimed at the faces of protesters, leading to several blindings.

Dozens have already been murdered in Egypt by SCAF, and at least a thousand seriously wounded.

There have also been widespread reports that the tear gas being used in Egypt is of a much more toxic form, which endangers not only by possible suffocation but by life-threatening damage to vital organs.

CSI-made tear gas has also been used against Palestinian protesters, including in the murder of Bassam Abu Rahma, killed when a tear gas projectile hit him in the chest, followed by the murder of his sister, Jawahar, who died by suffocation.

The Occupy movement and every social movement drawing inspiration from it has been clear from the start about the debt owed to Tahrir Square. And Occupy activists are increasingly being victimized by beatings, pepper-spray and arrests (most recently at UC Davis and Baruch in New York) by politicians who show little more regard for our lives and safety than Egypt’s military. Now it is our duty to defend the Egypt revolution!

Join the Egyptian solidarity community to demand:

No More Tear Gas, No More Military Aid to SCAF, 

End Military Rule in Egypt!

Initiated by the Ad Hoc Coalition to Defend the Egyptian Revolution

To endorse this demonstration or join the Coalition, email: defendegyptianrevolution@gmail.com

Look for us on Facebook under Stop Sales of Tear Gas to the Egyptian Military 

Please also send protest messages to Combined Systems Inc.:

Call CEO Don Smith at 724 932-2177, press 0.

Email the international sales rep at jimmarth@combinedsystems.com or the Media contact at paulford@combinedsystems.com

And to their owners, Point Lookout Capital Partners:

Michael A. Monteleone

Tel: 917-322-6437

mm@pointlookoutcapital.com

James J. Cesare

Tel: 917-322-6438

jc@pointlookoutcapital.com

Via the Atlantic Council's Egypt's page, a Brookings poll carried in October showed that 43% of Egyptians believe the military was working to reverse the goals of the revolution. This suggests that the supposed silent majority that backs SCAF is much smaller than we think — just think how much those numbers must have changed in the last month alone, even before the current crisis. This suggests that the time is ripe for a major push against SCAF — and that it's been the political leaders, not the people, who have been trailing behind.

Click to enlargeAbove is a very, very approximate reading of various political actors position on the current crisis. It is based on the following assumptions:

• The question of postponing elections is not particularly important to any actor — some are intent on holding them now, but very few have urged postponing them. We can either assume it's not a priority issue (apart from those who insist they take place) or people want them to go ahead.
• SCAF has conceded on transition to civilian rule by next July and the formation of a new government. The real difference is (1) between those who insist on a firm date for the transition and (2) those who want a NUG now, want a NUG after election or want a not just a new government, but the transfer of SCAF's powers to this government. 

I am putting this up hoping for corrections, feedback, fine-tuning, etc. Let me know in the comments. Of course this chart is impressionistic and I am aware of divergences within the Egyptian Bloc, etc.

For reference on who's who, take a look at our chart of players in the elections (I've only included major coalitions and parties) and this list of Egyptian presidential candidates.