Stacher: It's already over
Issandr El Amrani | #jan25 Egypt One-time contributor of the blog Joshua Stacher writes in Foreign Affairs:
Despite the tenacity, optimism, and blood of the protesters massed in Tahrir Square, Egypt's democratic window has probably already closed.
Contrary to the dominant media narrative, the Egyptian state did not experience a regime breakdown. The protests certainly rocked the system and had Mubarak on his heels, but at no time did the uprising seriously threaten Egypt's regime. Although many of the protesters, foreign governments, and analysts have concentrated on the personality of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, those surrounding the embattled president, who make up the wider Egyptian regime, made sure the state's viability was never in question. This is because the country's central institution, the military, which historically has influenced policy and commands near-monopolistic economic interests, never balked.
I'm not as pessimistic as Dr. Josh. I think the window is closing but there is still time to make major gains — the only thing is that the opposition must move quickly and coherently.
Reader Comments (8)
Thinking medium to long term. Isn't a lot of this dependent on whether the regime goes on to arrest and torture everyone involved, or now is forced to allow more complaints to be publicly aired?
neither am i. I think its just a matter of time before the regime crumbles. The regime lost its legitimacy and the people will continue to pile on the pressure until the revolution achieves all its goals.
Great Blog!!!
I am so fearful for the well-being of the young people involved if this doesn't succeed in at least putting some measures in place that can prevent the regime from persecuting them.
I'm actually wondering (and I'm curious as to what Mr. El-Amrani's opinion on this is) if the protester's focus on Tahrir Square is starting to hurt them. As Maria Golia's post said, the only real way for the movement to succeed is if it goes out among the general populalation, publishes pamphlets and the like, and genuinely tries to win most Egyptians over to its side. Standing around in Tahrir Square won't get that done-most of the activists there should, I think, leave and contact members of the neighborhood militias that took over law enforcement when the police left, at first for protection, but also to try to bring them into the movement. Then, they should start publishing leaflets, start spreading their messsage by word of mouth, and generally start constructing a durable, broad-based movement to bring down the regime.
I think time is indeed running away for the protesters. As it stands now, Mubarak can only wait, as it is a stalemate. No one is moving to take key buildings and the army is staying put, so Mubarak can wait it out and then go through with some sort of transition which will secure people around him keep power. Really, with such protests, contained as it is, the regime can just wait it out. Nobody is comming for them and sooner o later many people will just want a return of some sort of stability.
Al Jazeera update: the protestors have called for two huge demonstrations tomorrow. The first is in Tahrir square the second will take place in front of the National TV Station building.
It's about time someone took the initiative. The best form of defense is attack.
The Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia was mentioned. Looking back, the collapse of the Soviet Union was hardly a matter of weeks. It took an intense three years. For the Baltic States, it took from 1989 to l991, three years of continous agitation and pressure. There were huge gatherings at night to sing patriotic songs. There was a human chain that extended from the northernmost capital, Tallinn, thru Lativa, down to the Lithuanian border with Poland. Respect, Egypt, you've moved a mountain in just two weeks.
They may have moved a mountain (or not), but time has come to take over the TV building and the Parliament, burn the Presidential Palace to the ground and then go to Sharm and drag a certain little whelk of a man in an expensive suit out of his layer and beat his wrinkly ass with an old shoe until he coughs up that 70 billion in stolen loot.
Enough with sitting around Tahrir - all that's accomplished has been to help Omar dish Gamal and his boys. Not sure that's the kind of mountain any of them wanted to move.