The Wiles of Mubarak
Steve Negus | #jan25 Egypt mubarak
Tonight's speech by Mubarak is a reminder of how much the course of a revolution against an autocracy is shaped by the personal quirks of the autocrat. Here are a few thoughts from my end what calculations or miscalculations might have been going through Mubarak's head...
* Tone-deafness: Mubarak genuinely thought that he could defuse the situation with a hat-tip to the protesters, and that his transfer of powers would satisfy the protesters. He may also have thought back to his Feb 2 address, where he stirred up some genuine sympathy and regained the initiative, and was trying to repeat the performance. However, he so badly mangled his speech, and struck such an arrogant tone, that he made things worse.
* Cussedness: Mubarak projected arrogance and intransigence so as to call the bluffs of everyone -- the protesters, the Americans, and presumably now the military -- who are pushing him to leave. Maybe he allowed expectations to be raised, so as to make the blow fall that much harder. If you can't get rid of me after this, he is saying, then you can't get rid of me until I'm ready to go. Show your hand, or give up.
* Worse is better: Mubarak wanted to stir things up, to provoke a march on the palace and possibly trigger some violence. The regime had its greatest success undermining the uprising when the situation was at its most unstable. The return to normalcy on the other hand this week provided the opportunity for people to come together in the workplace, remember what they really dislike about the stagnant and corrupt status quo, and go on strike. So, he thought he might end the normalcy, rekindle fears of long-lasting anarchy, and put pressure on the demonstrators to quit with what concessions they have already won.
Reader Comments (11)
well, my gut feeling - either this is a well managed play or the regime is imploding. basically, now from the outside it looks as if there are three poles within the regime who can claim power: mubarak, suleiman and the army. weired... but eventually time and/or issandr will tell us what this is all about.
Also I'm wondering if the army and Mubarak/Suleiman are playing good cop-bad cop on this, and whether Mubarak gets to look like he's not caving while the army moves in later to defend the "interests of the people" along with Mubarak's cronies' interests
Mubarak showed he's a tin-pot dictator with a tin ear to the people of Egypt. It's just a matter of time and how many more Egyptians will have to die because of his sense of entitlement.
What strikes me most in the speech is that he's a sort of paternalistic, legalistic used-car salesman.
The speech's subtext is that he thinks that *HE* is Egypt, *HE* is the "Great Father" who knows best. How democratic of him.
Omar "Sauron" is a wily spy, and does not have it in him to guide Egypt to democracy now.
Good luck, Egyptians, and know that millions of Americans (outside our own looney right wing) are with you!
Mubarak, when it's time to take the plane, know that you are not welcome here. I'm sure the Saudis will have a nice villa waiting for you and your cronies.
In his book "Geography," the Dutch-American historian Hendrik Van Loon wrote of the French Revolution that Louis XVI and his advisors fell into the bad habit of finally agreeing to give the people A after they had already moved on to demanding A, B and C, at which point Louis would offer B, only to find that the people now wanted A through D -- "and so it went, all the way to the guillotine."
Apparently, Mubarak, like the Bourbons, has learned nothing and forgot nothing.
Can Mubarak really be that daft? I think not. But you have to give him credit (as troublesome as that is). I DO suspect that he is calling a bluff...trying to buy time. The more time he can buy, the more the everyday person on the street feels the economic pressure; needing to feed their family. This would lead to greater unrest and division of the population and would pit citizen against citizen.
The world is watching. We wish you, the Egyptian people, what you may choose for your future. Stay strong.
A citzen of the world, and an ordinary Canadian citizen,
N.
I just hope the people don't fall into his trap. He's clearly trying to bait them so he can turn the army loose on them. If they can keep to their dignified peaceful protest they will win the day.
I'm confused by the actions of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Their "Comunique 1" and Sami Anan's statements made it sound as if a military coup was underway. Where does the military leadership stand? Was there an attempted coup in the morning and then a counter coup to keep Mubarak in power? Finally, where is the lower officer corps? Will they actually execute the order to fire on the people if it comes? Friday looks like a pivotal day. God bless Egypt and her wonderful people!
God be with you Egypt! Do not listen to this abusive, harsh dictator that just wants your money!! His so called "speeches," are all full of lies! Furthermore, re-calling Mr. Wael Gonam, he needs to realize that the comments he stated was not apprioprate at this time, he needs to keep his thoughts to himself. Hosni Mbarak's regime has left 300 and more people dying on the dirt and soil of Egypt. This tyrant, Hosni Mubarak needs to leave period. There is no other way, if he leaves Egypt it will be at peace. We American Egyptians support everyone in Egypt. God bless Egypt!!
"Maybe he allowed expectations to be raised, so as to make the blow fall that much harder." This blog Feb 10, 2011
"I just hope the people don't fall into his trap. He's clearly trying to bait them so he can turn the army loose on them. If they can keep to their dignified peaceful protest they will win the day." Chris Taylor
The above quotes, I fear, are near the heart of the matter...a cold calculation by a brutal military dictator, bent on maintaining his power by any means. A paranoid interpretation of THursdays events would seem to indicate that at least part of the military is cooperating in the creation of this "trap". Even our CIA were convinced that Mubarak would step down. Multiple "sources" spread this idea to the various press.
The Egyptian people MUST maintain their totally peaceful posture. Any violence on their part will be brutally suppressed by that part of the miitary that has the most to lose.
No doubt, in response to Mubaraks and his cronies' provocation, the protests and strikes will increase. It seems probable that a true military coup is the most likely eventuality. The major question is how much blood will be shed: violence between parts of the military on themselves, and on the unfortunate Egyptian people.
May the wisdom of the Egypian people prevail in their PEACEFUL quest for democratic freedom.
if america could acknowledge and accept moral responsibility for the role it's played, it might make it more possible for mubarak to go. it's understandable that mubarak would object to america pressuring him now, since human rights have never been a condition of their close ties. america's new found concern for the egyptian people just seems to be making him act more cornered, caged. perhaps better for america to just stop and learn from this amazing revolution, draw courage from it to face what has happened to her own democracy. be inspired by it to ask why has it become impossible for america to do the right thing for the right reasons, or even look at the world through the hopes of others?
Another aspact of the vice/presidential statements so far has been their repeated reference to the youth of the demonstrators. Last week Suleiman called on the parents to bring their 'kids' home from Tahrir. Mubarak himself was addressing his speech to the young people in Tahrir. They seem to refuse to aknowledge that the demonstrators are coming from all walks of life, young and old. This underscores the yawning detachment from reality of the Mubarak regime. They do not seem to be able to keep up as events are unfolding. Whether that is genuin or tactic remains to be seen. Since help from outside is limmited from both sides to a great extend it will be up to the military. Although we do not know which side they are actually on they will have to make a decision at some point in the near future.
I'm terrified of the idea that Egypt might witness a descent into populism of an Islamic sort.