Salafists are not the Tea Party, they're Shas
Issandr El Amrani
Sheikh Yasser Burhami, one of Egypt's most influential Salafists
Rabbi Ovida Youssef, spiritual head of Shas
This morning's WSJ makes the Salafist - Tea Party comparison:
Political analysts don't expect the Nour Party and their allies to win more than 5% to 10% of the incoming Parliament. By comparison, leaders of the Brotherhood-aligned Freedom and Justice Party have said they aim for about 35% of the incoming legislature.
But the Salafis' popularity could create a "tea-party effect" on the Brotherhood, said Shadi Hamid, an expert on Egypt at the Brooking's Institution Doha Center. Likening the Salafis to the American conservatives whose electoral gains have helped move the Republican Party to the right, Mr. Hamid said these Islamists have the potential to alter the political platform of the Brotherhood, which has been comparatively more moderate.
"It's very likely that Salafis will be the second-largest bloc in Parliament behind the Brotherhood," said Mr. Hamid. "Down the road, the Salafi competition could...drag the rest of the political spectrum rightwards."
As we await the results, what may be more important than the size of the Salafist presence in the next parliament is their results compared to the Muslim Brotherhood. The Salafists pose a problem for Egyptian society overall, but also pose a particular problem for the Brotherhood in two ways: first, they are competitors for "the Islamist vote" (whatever that is), but secondly and more importantly, they have an internal impact in a Brotherhood that is partly Salafist-oriented itself. Hence a big question is whether Salafists, who are more intellectually innovative than the Brotherhood has been in years (at least in that they produce a lot of cultural, theoretical and theological output whereas the Brothers largely stick to Hassan al-Banna) might not drag the Brotherhood their way — rather than the entire political spectrum.
If the Salafists remain under 10%, the Brothers can afford to make alliances with centrist forces knowing that the Salafists will have their back on social conservative issues. If they start to rival the Brotherhood itself, it becomes more complicated, especially if both the Brotherhood and Salafists do well, because it will freak out the rest of the political spectrum. But we should also remember that politically, the MB and the Salafists are different political animals. The MB have a political project, whereas good parts of the Salafist movement (which is diverse) might have more narrow interests related to the role of religion in public life, social mores, education and similar issues. They've shown in the past that they could be quietist about who holds power, and the Salafi movement has a strong tradition of defference to the rulers. They are not necessarily upstart radicals out to change the political system, which is how the Tea Party presents itself. They might be more like the Israeli party Shas, focusing on a narrow range of issues. It might not be getting funding for Yeshivas (or madrassas), but rather fighting the culture wars they've been fighting for decades: influencing education, state-backed religious and cultural production (al-Azhar, the Ministry of Awqaf, the Ministry of Culture, etc.), and laws having to do with women and family.
Reader Comments (5)
Is it me or does Rabbi Ovida Youssef look just like a Coptic bishop?
I've always thought he looks rather like Ayatollah Khamenei...
If the Salafists are Shas, then is FJP Likud? :)
Seriously, I'd argue that the ikhwan is Shas, or at least what Shas would be if it were a plurality party. Shas theoretically does have a political program, and if it were as big as Likud or Kadima, it would try to implement that program. The Israeli analogy you're looking for is UTJ - a party that will always be a minority and knows it, and will sit in government with anyone if its priority issues are addressed.
Also, Shas and UTJ do pull Israeli politics generally to the right. While they may prioritize some issues, they still get a vote on the others, and that vote tends to be right-wing. (The original Shas, under Aryeh Deri, had some populist "religious left" stances on economic issues and even took moderate foreign policy positions on occasion, but the party's present incarnation under Eli Yishai is hard-right on those issues. I'm not sure how Nour compares -- my guess is that it would be more populist on economic issues, but that's just a wild guess.)
Coptic Bishop : Ayahtollah Khameini : Spiritual Leader of Shas
Funny how they can look so similar yet despise each other with such a passion... Alas, the perils of religion!
Same attitude, different sides.