11:08AM
Stratfor: "Imagining Egypt after Mubarak"
Issandr El AmraniThe rumors about about Hosni Mubarak's health continue (the latest I heard is that he is in coma), and there is still no credible picture of him nor has he made an appearance on television. There is such a dearth of information and abundance of unverifiable rumors — such as that Gamal Mubarak's wife Khadiga had a son in Germany or that senior officials are prevented from leaving the country —that's it's hard to know what to make of it. We just have to wait and see, I guess, and trust in the statements the German medical team is making (incidentally, I'd like to know why this hospital was chosen, since Mubarak used to be treated in French military hospitals.)
I thought I'd share a dispatch from Stratfor, the strategic forecasting company. I'm not a big fan of their analysis generally, and here they are reviving the theory whereby Omar Suleiman would be a transitional president before Gamal Mubarak takes over. It's a theory that doesn't make that much sense, and they may be onto something more credible when worrying about internal NDP / regime rivalries. It's after the jump.
March 15, 2010 | 2342 GMTSEAN GALLUP/Getty ImagesEgyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Berlin on March 4An Egyptian Embassy spokesman in Washington denied reports March 15 that longtime Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has died. STRATFOR sources say Mubarak is alive, but that the 81-year-old leader is not expected to seek another term in office. The long-ruling party may face internal difficulties during this transition, which has significant ramifications for Egypt and beyond.AnalysisA spokesman at the Egyptian Embassy in Washington told CBS on March 15 that reports that longtime Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has died in a German hospital are untrue. Mubarak has not appeared publicly since undergoing gallbladder surgery at Heidelberg University Hospital over the weekend, though he reportedly will make a statement by phone from the hospital to dismiss the rumors. During his absence, Mubarak temporarily delegated powers to Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif. Under the Egyptian Constitution, the prime minister is next in line to the presidency.
STRATFOR sources report that the 81-year-old Mubarak has nonterminal cancer of the gallbladder and that he is not expected to seek another term in office. Regardless, Mubarak’s passage will have major implications for the Egyptian state.
Mubarak’s health is a sensitive issue in Egypt, as it remains unclear who will succeed him. As his departure from the scene has been widely anticipated, there has long been speculation on this topic. It is widely believed that he is grooming his son, Gamal, to be Egypt’s next president. It has been known for some time, however, that the country’s intelligence chief Omar Suleiman would likely succeed Mubarak as president.
STRATFOR has learned there is reportedly a tacit understanding that Suleiman will serve for one presidential term, during which Gamal Mubarak will be his vice president, and will then succeed Suleiman after the first term. This is likely a way to try and counter the popular view that Gamal is too young and inexperienced to rule just yet. Suleiman’s advanced age reinforces President Mubarak’s confidence that Suleiman will obey his succession wishes and serve one term only.
Regardless of how Egypt’s presidential succession plays out, an Egypt without Hosni Mubarak at the helm will represent the end of an era. He has led Egypt since 1981, when Islamist militants assassinated his predecessor, Anwar El Sadat. The longtime president largely has overshadowed the ruling National Democratic Party, which with the military has controlled the state for decades. Whether the party (and by extension its government) can function effectively without its leader remains to be seen. The question is whether Egypt’s governing elite will follow in the footsteps of Syria’s Allawites, who essentially backed President Bashar al-Assad when his father, Hafez al-Assad passed away in 2000.
Egypt’s political tradition has been quite different than Syria in that it has a historical parliamentary and republican tradition making it difficult for dynasty rule to take hold. In fact, the Mubarak government is a successor to the Nasserist revolution in 1952, which overthrew hereditary rule in 1952. Therefore, the men who have supported Hosni Mubarak for so long are unlikely to easily accept Gamal as president.
The consequences of an intra-NDP struggle are immense given that it could embolden the largest and most organized political opposition group in the country, the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood movement. Though it is moderate in that it seeks power via electoral politics, it has a radical agenda that could have huge regional implications. This threat could help mitigate internal problems within the NDP; either way, the military-intelligence establishment will be paying close attention to the question of the Islamist opposition.
Egypt’s internal politics have reached a historic crossroads, and the potential for things to go badly is significant. The domestic politics of the Arab state, however, are closely linked with the region’s geopolitics, as it is the most important country in the Arab world. Any domestic turmoil could have potential consequences for an array of issues given the numerous regional issues in play: diplomatic relations with Israel, the Palestinian issue, a rising Iran and a re-emergent Turkey.
Reader Comments (12)
"The domestic politics of the Arab state, however, are closely linked with the region’s geopolitics, as it is the most important country in the Arab world."
It's a huge stretch to call Egypt "the most important country in the Arab world."
Saudi Arabia is on just about every level, the most important country in the Arab world. One could make a strong case that the UAE is more important geo-politically than Egypt.
yeah, i agree.
"One could make a strong case that the UAE is more important geo-politically than Egypt."
I agree about Saudi Arabia and maybe even Qatar, but the UAE? Really?
I only meant I agree about Saudi - I wouldn't agree about Qatar or UAE.
In terms of international trade, the West has far, far more interests in Qatar and the UAE than in Egypt.
"This is likely a way to try and counter the popular view that Gamal is too young and inexperienced to rule just yet."
It's a sad indictment of Egyptian society that this view is more widely held than that he should not rule.
Egypt's role began to decline with its participation in the first Gulf War and particularly when President La vache quiri made his infamous "cucumber" speech in the desert of Saudi Arabia. Asking Egyptian soldiers "بتكلو خيار كويس؟!؟!" did not exactly redeem this man to either his people or the Arabs watching the charade on live TV. Not sure if it is just me, but the article is badly written as it repeats, almost Mantra-like the presumption that Jamal is defacto the Dictator of Egypt.
Also, it does not answer some important questions; where does this leave both the religious and secular opposition in the country? El-Baradei, Ayman Noor (what happened to him anyway?) et al. are just few examples who could offer alternatives to this rotten government in Cairo.
It also does not point out the severe corruption of the current Gang of Four (Husni, Suzann, Jamal and Alaa), the billions they raked in and that being the main motivator why they are clinging to the presidency.
On the other hand, the view from outside the Middle East is that the smaller Gulf nations, starting from Kuwait to Oman, are together offering a more stable and even more profitable alternative to Draconian Saudi Arabia, a nation that until this day bullies its neighbors on border, economic and political issues. Qatar, the UAE and the rest of these nations are creating a mini-GCC within the current Council to counteract Saudi’s strong-arm tactics.
"Not sure if it is just me, but the article is badly written as it repeats, almost Mantra-like..."
palestinian, it's not just you. Stratfor is rubbish. They regurgitate conventional wisdom, present every option in the book rather than make an argument, and then have the gall to claim they have super-secret insider sourcing in their marketing. They are the classic example of a no-value-added group of pseudo-analysts who simply have found out how to market rubbish.
Thanks non-Arab Arab :o)
I am not too familiar with their writings or articles and after reading this piece I am very happy I did not come across their rubbish....
Egypt's role did not began to decline merely in 1991. Egypt had a large degree of influence amongst the Arab states within the context of onventional wars between the Arabs and the state of Israel. Of all the Arab states, the Egyptian Army was the only one that, alone, could come remotely close to competing with and posing any kind of threat to the IDF.
That is why Egypt was the "most powerful" Arab country in the 1960s and 1970s. Once the age of conventional wars ended, following the 1973 war and the subsequent peace treaties, it was inevitable that Egypt would lose it's role as "most powerful" or influential Arab country.
The threat of war was the only real card it had, once it gave that up, it became much less influential. It's not a big player in any industry, so it has no real economic cards it can play, unlike KSA or some of the Gulf countries.
It is simply wrong to state that Egypt's regional role began to decline with its participation in the Gulf War.
Egypt will always be OK because of its kind people.
Allah Allah good news