Elections in the Gulf 1/2: Bahrain
Jenifer FentonTwo elections are taking place in the Gulf — in Bahrain and in the United Arab Emirates — on Saturday. The political environments could not be more different, but the results of both elections are not expected to change much. First, let's look at the dynamics in Bahrain. Tomorrow, a second part of this post will look at the UAE.
In Bahrain the election was called to replace the 18 seats formerly held by the main Shiite opposition group, Al Wefaq, which resigned earlier this year protesting the government’s crackdown. Al Wefaq and five other opposition groups are boycotting the vote. Several candidates have already won unopposed. Al Wefaq said it was powerless against the government and since the group has walked out of parliament, the government has not conceded anything, they say. How could they return under such conditions?
“We were not able to help the people when the crackdown started,” according to Matar Ebrahim Matar, a former Al Wefaq MP, who himself was arrested, held and beaten in detention — an accusation the government denies. “The government doesn’t listen to anybody so even if we are inside (the parliament), the government are ignoring all those who are speaking about violations, people who are fired from their jobs, tortured inside the jail and the patients who cannot reach medical services,” he said. “The denial will not stop the issues.”
So much has happened in the Gulf kingdom since February when the unrest began. More than three dozen people are dead, roughly 5,000 were injured and 3,000 lost their jobs. As a percentage of the population (there are roughly 620,000 Bahrainis and 650,000 expatriates) the losses are enormous.
A “National Dialogue” was launched in the summer to discuss reforms without preconditions. Al Wefaq stopped participating in the talks saying the dialogue did not address the roots of the problem and was not credible.
Since then mass rallies are held every week by Al Wefaq. Other anti-government groups are also holding weekly events. Nightly clashes in the Shiite areas continue, with deaths occurring every few weeks. The population remains dissatisfied and no meaningful doors are open for dialogue. Calls for civil disobedience have begun as organizers asked anti-government demonstrators to use their cars to block roads and bring the capital to a standstill on Wednesday. This week, the government tried to show it was sympathetic and King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa issued a royal decree establishing a compensation fund for the victims of the violence.
There is no going back to the way things were. An opposition observer, who cannot be named for security reasons, told me:
If Al Wefaq enters into parliament the entire load of the pain will come on their shoulders. All the Shiite people… will blame them or say okay now you’re representatives you have to extract our rights, you have to do something for us, which they cannot. The system is tightly governed that you cannot even question the most junior minister — that is like an impossibility.”
Voter turnout is expected to be low with one analyst estimating 15 percent. In contrast to the 2010 election when Al Wefaq ran and turnout was high - in part because a media campaign against Al Wefaq backfired and the group won additional anti-government support. In 2010, “we were trying at that time to send a positive message that we are willing to take steps to contribute in whatever the government is doing,” Matar, the Al Wefaq MP, said. “But the government didn’t allow even very small changes in the constitution.”
Not everyone sees it that way. This is what Jamal Fakhro, the First Deputy Chairman of the Shura Council, argues:
The opposition they have their own understanding of negotiation of dialogue or discussions. They have been offered everything. They have been given their right to stand for the election. The voters have supported them, have given them their 18 seats out of the 40. And still they believe they are not very well represented… The opposition are saying ‘either you do it in accordance to whatever I want or I will start to work on the general public to bring upset to the community and unrest to Bahrain’… They are not able, unfortunately, to sit across a table and discuss and have a proper dialogue or place their thoughts at the parliament and fight for them.
The result of the election is known before voting begins, as the opposition is out. A more important date to watch will be at the end of October, when an independent commission, set up by the king, will issue its report on the events that unfolded in Bahrain. The king has said “the Commission is free to make any recommendations.”
The burden will then be on the government to implement them.
Reader Comments (4)
It should be noted that Al-Wefaq represents roughly about 36% of the Shia population in Bahrain, which equals roughly about 18% of the total population. Of those running for elections on Saturday, the majority are independent since Al Wefaq has boycotted these by-elections and put pressure on its followers to do the same as well as create a state of terror for independent candidates leading the latter to demand protection from the government to be able to campaign in safety. The majority of these candidates are of the Shia faith.
Al-Wefaq did nothing for its constituents during the height of the unrest and continues to pursue a policy of All or Nothing. This is unacceptable to the other segments of Bahraini soceity; the Sunni's, Jews, and Christians as well as to moderate Shia and Shia who do not follow Al Wefaqs' idealogy.
Since their withdrawal from the national dialogue, Al Wefaq has played the role of the oppressed and subjugated and used that to inflame their supporters into violent clashes with the state police whose mission is to protect all Bahrainis and expatriates living in the Kingdom.
Al Wefaq itself draws its political idealogy from Velayat Al Faqeeh and as such looks to the Ayotollahs in Iran for political direction and affiliation albeit not in such obvious terms. It also has close contacts with Hizbollah in both Lebanon and Iraq. Indeed their leaders have been to visit Hassan NasrAllah on many an occasion and still continue to this day.
@Man_Antum: Thanks for your regime propaganda screed, but it's quite transparent and useless. The government killed and tortured and fired and ripped Bahrain to shreds after it refused to allow any real reform. It makes perfect sense that regime hacks such as yourself would lie to defend them instead of facing up to the realities of injustice you are helping to perpetrate.
No surprise to observers or the observers, the Declaration «Islamic National Accord Association» Complementary boycott the elections, it was all roads lead to Rome.
Not surprisingly, the declaration came days after the Red «promised» the province, and the Declaration of «National Rally» a similar decision, and it has increased the threat of separation of any member will come out of the decision. This comes with the expected announcement Societies «Progressive Forum» and «national coalition», their positions within days of the by-election which is approaching the date held in September / September next in circuit 18, which was represented by Vice-Concord, the largest parliamentary bloc, which represents 64 percent of the entire electoral bloc.
Certainly, thousands of attendees are not a fan of the cold to sit in the hot weather and humidity, but I doubt that they have political demands quite believe that they are legitimate and impeccable ... And have no secret agendas or unstated goals, or relationships with other countries as promoted Almarjvon. They still proclaim their adherence to the political demands that do not feel free of them, of an elected parliament with full powers, and the Government are held accountable for any errors, and an independent judiciary, freedom of expression and respect for human rights. The demands posed by the opposition political societies since the beginning of the crisis, and represents the essence of the political movement is currently in Bahrain, which is in essence consistent with the initiative of His Highness the Crown Prince announced by March 13 / March 2011.
«Promised» announced the boycott of the opposition not taking Bmriat, and «Progressive Forum» required providing a congenial atmosphere for elections, and «National Rally» threatened the separation of any member involved. The «reconciliation» Finally, the public demanded to reject sectarian strife and speeches, and focus on the legitimate demands which are for the good of all citizens through a real partnership, with no discrimination
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