A different take on foreign intervention in Libya
Issandr El AmraniFollowing up on Steve's excellent post considering pros and cons of foreign military intervention in Libya, I want to add my two cents. For me, Iraq had made me a die-hard opponent of foreign military intervention of any kind. I like neither the muscular interventionism of the neo-conservatives nor the very similar humanitarian interventionism of liberals. I have a little more respect for the Responsibility to Protect concept currently adopted by the UN, which has surprisingly not been invoked in the Libyan case and at least sets out some communal rules about intervention. Moreover, I am specifically againt US intervention: the US is overstretched as it is, and it does not need the inherit the mess in Libya.
The no-fly zone concept being bandied about, as Steve noted, is both a lot more difficult to pull off than people think and not particularly helpful. The US only has one aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean, and it's not clear what the rest of NATO / European powers can bring to the table. It would take time to organize when events on the ground are moving swiftly. And most of the fighting has moved to Kalashnikovs and heavy caliber guns by now rather than aerial bombardment. A related concept would be to prevent more mercenaries arriving in Libya — perhaps a deployment of the French contingent in Chad to the border, or some kind of aerial interception (that would, considering the areas involved, be short of a no-fly zone). (Update: More from Robert Dreyfus on no-fly zones — and also, if Sarkozy wants a no-fly zone, why doesn't he take France's aircraft carriers out of drydock?)
Another concept one hears about is a ground invasion by Egypt to restore order. While I kind of like this concept, the Egyptian military has a country to run at the moment and no appetite for adventurism. Let's be satisfied at least that the Arab League two days ago actually issued a condemnation of what was happening in Libya, a historic first. Arab countries are unfortunately not able to address these kinds of crises, although they should certainly move towards being able to. Even then, I doubt Libyans would be thrilled at having Egyptians in their country, and to Egyptians it might be a very foreign territory considering Libya's tribal make-up.
Another possibility is a decapitation mission against the Libyan leadership, particularly Muammar Qadhafi. I think that this mission with clearly defined and limited aims is the best choice if intervention of any kind is chosen. The only problem is that it might deprive Libyans of the pleasure of doing it themselves (although perhaps those defector pilots could be put to good use). It would obviously rely either an aerial bombing mission (hard to verify success) or a special forces operation (difficult to pull off without good intelligence).
Finally, we should consider the possibility of a prolonged civil war in Libya, with or without the Qadhafis, and no foreign intervention. Someone will be selling weapons to one side or the other. Perhaps some are even considering arming one side, at least so they can defend themselves. I doubt many people want more weapons in Libya, but this is the way things are likely to head if there is no decisive victory by one side or the other. And the best way to avoid that would be to start the political contacts between former Qadhafi regime members, opposition figures and tribal leaders as soon as possible. And that's something that Egypt and Tunisia, with their familiarity with this little-known country, might be in the best position to offer.
Reader Comments (6)
You are thinking, unlike most. I didn't know about "Responsibility to Protect concept currently adopted by the UN" but yes, they should exercise - they chose it. Not a real thing, the UN. Talk. And I'm afraid, the USA has lost all it's puissance & glamour since 1944. Invading countries on the basis of lies. Democracy, I hope, will now *really* rule. You know perhaps, that democracy as such has been corrupted in the US, and that many sophisticated societies are now far too sophisticated to do more than sit on their behinds. It is a good time for Arab folks to come forth. Thanks.
Doesn't Gaddafi's have money in banks outside Libya? What about freezing his assets so he can't for mercenaries? Or would that just make him dig in and lash out harder?
With Gaddafi just giving a speech to the residents of Az Zawiyah, and with AlJazeera reporting fighting there and in Zuara, isn't this (concededly at terrible cost) taking care of itself, an all-Libyan solution, without Bigfoot coming in?
The U.S. went to war with Iraq because it was feared Sadam had WMD and would use them. Curveball fooled the Administration but it wasn't only him...Sadam was the victim of his own misinformation campaign. He deliberately made the world think he had these weapons.
Libya didn't have much of a nuclear weapons program but traded the right to have one. (If they were a nuclear threat they simply would have been taken out.) President Regan used Star Wars to defeat the Evil Empire. Misinformation can be a powerful weapon!
Like it or not, the United States is the world's policeman. We have over 800 military installations in over 140 countries. If the U.S. wants to truly have the moral high ground, the hypocrisy has to end, and the use of power must be surgical and intended to stop atrocities where they occur. It would be nice if the United Nations were the world's policeman but they lack the spine.
The US is the worlds policeman when ever it likes to jump on it's high horse for the good of their economic interests...otherwise they claim not to be that cop.
The delay from the US president is for economic reasons ONLY:
The majority of western foreigners in Libya right now are specialized oil workers, and you should have NO doubt that Shell, BP, Total and Exxon-mobil are shouting at Obama right now to keep his trap shut, until their essential personnel are out of the country.
I'm quite sure they've literally said: Once our guys are out, just blow his brains out.
Excellent suggestions. Would be great if this could be resolved within he Libyan tribes, or with regional assistance in negotiations.
Khadaffi is fast becoming irrelevant (he should have been removed by his own long time ago) and for once the UN security council and all involved (and not so involved) parties seem to be going in the same direction with asset freezes and unanimous banning of the colonel and his methods.
This inspires some hope for a good solution for the Libyan people.