Charts Galore: Round one of Egypt's elections
Issandr El AmraniCaveat Emptor
Before we delve into the charts to analyse the results, a word of caution: while the results for the individual candidacy (IC) districts are official, there will be runoffs in all but four districts on Monday, and there could still be changes due to legal challenges due to campaign violations. Still, there is valuable information to be mined here for various purposes: seeing who the runoffs are between and voting accordingly — for instance if you're a liberal can't stand the Salafists, you might vote for their Muslim Brotherhood competitor just to ward them off, or conversely you may want to seek out those districts where a non-Islamist may still stand a chance. Likewise if you're a Muslim Brother, this shows which districts are battlegrounds to concentrate on — there are many districts split between Salafists and Brothers, for instance.
Even more caution is necessary with the proportional representation (PR) districts, for which all results and estimates used below have been collated from the media, since there have been no official announcements. Eventually, for both IC and PR districts, it will be fascinating to see the complete information on the votes cast — anecdotally, we for instance know that in a place like Fayoum district #2 — mostly split between the Salafists and the Brothers — one-third of votes got wasted on tiny parties that stood no chance.
For the meantime, considering the appalling lack of diligence and transparency of the Higher Elections Commission, we must make do with what we have.
The big picture
The above map, based on our previous chart of Egypt's political parties, represents more or less the ones that have garnered enough votes to count, with each party represented according to the number of seats it obtained (or may obtain following runoffs). This picture is unlikely to change much in the remaining two rounds, and shows three big political forces: The Muslim Brothers' FJP, the Salafists (especially the Nour Party), and the Egyptian Bloc alliance led by the Free Egyptians and the Social Democratic Party. Get this chart in PDF.
The breakdown
Both the breakdowns of IC and PR races are important, but differently: for IC, the runoffs are on Monday and voters will be interested to see if their candidate of first choice made it, and if not who else they might vote for. This will be particularly important for voters interested in avoiding a certain type of candidate (say across the Islamist-secular divide) and, because there are so many FJP vs. Nour races, there will be a lot of incentives for the Muslim Brothers to rally secularists to their side with the argument that at least they are not Salafists. Or, for some people who can't stand the Muslim Brothers, to back the Salafists to make sure they don't get in (this sentiment may very well be prevalent considering the bad press the Brothers have gotten from the regime over the last few decades as agents of Iran, Hamas, freemasonry, etc.)
Here's a graphic representation of the first round, pre-runoff results for both IC and PR I put together that should enable readers to quickly see the hot races. For details on who is running, we have a full list of the IC results (and some PR results) at the bottom of this post that includes the candidates' names.
You'll probably want to download the PDF version of this image, which is a lot easier to read and is formatted to be printed on A4 paper (in color obviously). Our count makes the runoffs as follows:
| FJP v. Nour: 22 FJP v. EB: 6 FJP v. felools: 4 FJP v. independents: 10 FJP v. Wafd: 1 |
Nour v. EB: 1 EB v. Independents: 1 Nour v. Adl: 1 Felool v. Nour: 1 Nour v. independents.: 1 |
As the two leading parties nationally, the FJP and Nour are running close races in a lot of districts. But the third party, the Egyptian Bloc, also has a chance at getting an additional 8 seats, although it tends to be the underdog. Cairenes alone have a chance at getting another four MPs from the Egyptian Bloc.
The full data that went into making these charts is available in PDF. It includes full results when available or at least, for PR districts, the order in which the parties came. Please let us know in the comments if you spot any errors.
Wait, there's more
I'd also like to highlight a couple of other charts a reader sent in.
The first one, by Mostafa El-Hoshy compares Salafist vs. other Islamist votes:
;)
By Mostafa El-Hoshy — click for full sizeThe chart shows the degree to which voters went for Islamist parties generally — over half in most places and about two-thirds generally, and then the split among Islamist parties between the Salafists and the rest (i.e. mainly the Muslim Brotherhood.) What's striking here is that while the Brothers have the lead generally, their margin (the non-Salafi Win Differential) is quite small along the northern Delta and in the Fayoum — all places where the Brothers have a long-established presence. We still have much to learn about the Salafist electoral machine, but that alone is quite an achievement considering they never ran for office before. Whether it's grassroots, money or effective campaigning remains a mystery to me.
The second is also by Mostafa El-Hoshy, and compares Islamist vs. non-Islamist votes (I don't know whether parties such as al-Tayyar al-Masri, al-Adl, al-Wassat and others that may be "Islamist Lite" are included.) It's pretty self-explanatory.;)
By Mostafa El-Hoshy — click to enlarge
You can get the spreadsheet with data for these last two charts here.
Reader Comments (26)
Thanks! Great, easy to read, just what I need. The runoff counts per party is especially useful. FJP in all but five of them!
Small error spotted: proportional districts chart shows last two seats in Damietta went to Al-Adl. I think you meant Al-Wasat.
Yes in Damietta #1 PR System El Wasat was the third party with 60,814 (unofficial data)
The cluster of small parties on the right side of the chart are the felools, right?
Yes (Eg National Party, Reform&Development, New Independent, Freedom and Egyptian Citizen)
Hey there,
Just two quick questions...
1) Jadaliyya lists the district sizes for Alex differently
2) Where are your numbers from? With the Jadaliyya numbers I got some results which were different to yours.
Cheers
I just have a few questions, if you don't mind me asking them. So you have a PR system with a .5% threshold at the district level. Do you also have a winner-take-all plurality system at the district level? If so, what is the district magnitude for the winner-take-all? And what is the professional/worker distinction? I am confused a little here. Thanks
Very well done, thanks for the insights. Interesting to see the Salafis got no votes in the Red Sea area where everyone lives off half-naked European women baking on the beach and taking out the boys. Quite a sharp contrast with cities like Alexandria and Damietta, which are also on the sea but have probably somehow managed to lose their cosmopolitan flair and attitude a long time ago and could also be land-locked provincial cities.
amazing thanx alot!!
"We still have much to learn about the Salafist electoral machine, but that alone is quite an achievement considering they never ran for office before. Whether it's grassroots, money or effective campaigning remains a mystery to me." That result is everything but normal. To be followed....
Moritz,
In Alex there are two districts for the PR (#1 Montaza, #2 Moharam Bek) and four for IC system: on Jadalyya is it not the same?
I checked again all the results for IC system: yes there a few mistakes on the numbers of votes that we will correct.
Our source for the IC system are HEC official results list (http://gate.ahram.org.eg/UI/Front/Inner.aspx?NewsContentID=144414
For the Pr system, we are giving only estimations based on unofficial data (from Jadalyya and newspapers basically Masr Alyoum, El Shoroq Al-Ahram).
Tahar,
here Alahram on line article http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/28194.aspx where you can find explanations and the IFES report http://www.ifes.org/Content/Publications/White-Papers/2011/~/media/Files/Publications/White%20PaperReport/2011/Analysis_of_Egypts_2011_Parliamentary_Electoral_System.pdf
Tahar,
This is a great explanation of the whole electoral process:
http://www.facebook.com/notes/ahmed-o-eltouny/egyptian-elections-explained/10150386627296377
Jacopo,
It was late last night looking at your numbers and I wasn't very articulate anymore. Let me try once more...
first a post for the first point.
Jadaliyya claims:
Alexandria (24 seats)
Seat Breakdown: Party list [District #1 (6); District #2 (10)]
Single-winner [Districts #1-4 (2 each)]
You however list it with 10 + 8 + 4*2.
I tend to trust your numbers more than theirs, still, you might have an error there.
I am not sure where to double check for exact answers.
Moritz
Point numero itneen...
There are a number of proportional distributions which I find highly improbable including Cairo 2 and Damietta.
Cairo just looks weird to me, but i have seen no numbers. For Damietta according to the numbers I have seen so far they only ever list the top three parties. Once the other parties get listed (or was there only three in Damietta?) that result is bound to change. I would suggest you mark those results where you have all the numbers as "more final" and the others as "less final". Or do yu indeed have the numbers and it had no effect?
Dear Moritz,
For Cairo #2 and Damietta I had only estimations and my sources (Jadalyya and Masr Alioum) gave only EB and FJB with no data for Cairo#2, data only for FJP, Nour, Wasat in Damietta.
That's why we gave estimations with a margin of error, waiting for final results.
Point number three...
With the jadaliyya numbers which are here
http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/3331/egyptian-elections_preliminary-results_updated-
I get different distributions of seats for proportional in:
KaS 1 one less for Nour, one more for Reform and development
KaS 2 no Egy Block but one more Nour
Assiut 2 one less for Nour, one more for Reform and development
Fayyoum 1 one less Nur, one more RCA
Port Said one less Egy Blocl, one ore Wasat
And since comments on this blog have become a little hostile recently, I should add here: Thanks a lot for your comprehensive overview. I am looking forward to the next rounds :)
Dear Moritz,
Thank you very much for your remarks. You are probably right for the different distributions you got. Actually, Jadalyya updated its page today in the morning and when I did calculations yesterday I didn't have precise number of voters for the circonscriptions you mentioned. I'll do again excel calculations.
i have concerne regarding the positon of "the revolution continues in the big picture graph. it is not that left also regarding the secular/religious it is not that extremist.
Where's Jacopo get his data for PR and IC? Differs with spreadsheet Hany Rasmy and I put together using official HEC resutls (at least for IC). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArJ55OEtdM4edFJHczR2eE01dklfckJsTVlNSm5TUkE&hl=en_US#gid=0
Hi Evan, for the IC I took them from the official lists published yesterday on Al-Ahram. I read my chart again today and actually there are some mistakes (confusion between 2 and 3 in Arabic). I'll correct them using your google doc and the official results published this afternoon on the elections2011.eg website (http://www.elections2011.eg/index.php/results/2011-12-04-02-30-40). I think they did some mistakes on the paper version (for example for Cairo #1 FJP Professional candidate they initially put 18072 and then 18,0722).
For the PR estimations I got the data from Jadalyya and Masr Alioum (yesterday's data) and today there are new updates not included in the chart.
Roger that, Jacopo. Do you have a link to the al-Masry al-Youm data?
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/node/532611
but not detailed for each electoral district
Thank you for posting the links for the Ahram article and the IFES White-Paper. I now understand the system.
Just wanted to say the charts are wonderful and thanks for the hard work.
Things are always better when they're representing actual data and not what narrative someone has decided to convey.
Great work guys! Your charts and maps are very informative, clear and easy to follow, very much appreciated!
P.S. A more detailed explanation on the Egyptian electoral process (especially regarding the sequence of Professionals and Workers/Farmers from list-based candidates). Here is the link:
http://mujaz.me/blogs/737/كيفية-حساب-أصوات-القائمة-فى-الانتخابات-البرلمانية