Figuring out Egypt's elections: Qasr al-Nil
Issandr El Amrani
The Lions of Qasr al-Nil Bridge
Here’s an exercise in how I think the votes in the proportional part of Egypt’s parliamentary elections will be calculated. Let’s take the beautiful district of Kasr al-Nil — the Fighting Lions! — where The Arabist is based, covering parts of Downtown Cairo and the tony island of Zamalek. This district slants liberal compared to the rest of the country. These are the results that have been published in the press:
- Freedom and Justice: 162,841 votes
- Egyptian Bloc: 73,183 votes
- al-Wafd: 59,807 votes
- al-Nour: 59,184 votes
- New Independents (Ex-NDP): 28,233 votes
A quick note: the district borders are somewhat different, but a friend ran for parliament in this district in 2000 and the winner (not him) only needed about 3,000 votes. Tells you a lot about how participation has increased.
In Kasr al-Nil district, you have a total of eight seats. Take the total number of votes cast (an approximation if you only use the five top parties above — I don’t have data for the rest), and that makes 47,861 votes per seat. In other words, each seat is worth 47861 votes. You compare that figure to the result of each party that obtained at least that number of votes and get:
- FJP: 3 seats + 18,898 remainder
- Egyptian Bloc: 1 seat + 25,322 remainder
- al-Wafd: 1 seat + 11,946 remainder
- al-Nour: 1 seat + 11,323 remainder
Now, you still have two seat unassigned. These go to the two largest largest remainders: the New Independents (who didn’t get a seat at first but still got more votes than anyone else’s remainder) and the Egyptian Bloc, which has the largest remainder of the parties above.
Final results:
- Freedom and Justice: 3 seats
- Egyptian Bloc: 2 seats
- al-Wafd: 1 seat
- al-Nour: 1 seat
- New Independents: 1 seat
Does this make sense? Let me know if you spotted a mistake, and of course these results could apparently still change by the end of the elections because of a) the uncertainty of whether a national threshold of votes is needed (in which case the New Independents could very well lose their seat, which will go to the FJP which has the next largest remainder) and b) the need to adjust results to ensure that half of parliament is composed of workers/farmer seats.
Reader Comments (10)
This looks like how I understand the seats are meant to be distributed.
I am still very confused about (b), the workers/farmers issue. How will the workers/farmers be chosen? If it is not a district-by-district choice, which districts will have to give up their slots to the workers/farmers and which won't? If it is a district-by-district choice, why are they waiting until the end of the voting? Will it be on a per-seat basis (first seat to non-worker/farmer, second seat to worker/farmer) and whoever won that particular seat has to put in the appropriate candidate from their list?
Maybe you or one of your readers has a better sense of how this works from past elections?
In answer to Nate's question:
My understanding according to the law is that the worker/farmer share must be maintained on a district by district basis. The reason we are waiting until the end of the election is because for lists to be eligible for seats they have to have one 0.5% of all the votes casts nationwide on for party lists. Unqualified lists will set aside and the votes they win will not be added to a district's total valid votes for the purpose of proportional seat distribution.
Using the example of the Qasr El-Nil District, and I agree with the formula used to arrive at the results, the distribution of Professionals (P ) and Worker/Farmers (WF), would be as follows, assuming that each began their lists with a professional candidate:
FJP: 3 Seats - 2P + 1 W/F
EB: 2 seats - 1P + 1 W/F
Wafd: 1 seat - 1P
Nour: 1 seat - 1P
NI: 1 Seat - 1 P
Total: - 6 P + 2 W/F
By law half this district's elected members (i.e 4) must be workers/farmers.
This is dealt with by giving the seat to the next worker farmer candidate on the list rather then the professional. Which meanest 2 seats will have to be shifted from professionals to worker/farmers from 2 lists. To determine which lists have to switch their candidates from professional's to candidates an "Electoral Coefficient" (EC) for each list is calculated, and seats are shifted from professionals to workers for those lists that have the lowest EC.
EC = Number of Votes won by the list / Number of Seats won by the List
Therefore the the EC for the lists would be as follows:
FJP : 162,841 votes / 3 seats = 54,280
EB : 73,182 votes / 2 seats = 36,592
Wafd : 59,897 votes / 1 seats = 59,897
Nour : 59,184 votes / 1 seats = 59,184
NI : 28,233 votes / 1 seats = 28,233
The 2 lowest ECs are for the NI Party (28,233) and for the EB (36,592). Therefore each of the parties will replace 1 Professional for 1 Worker/Farmer, giving us a final distribution as follows:
FJP: 3 Seats - 2P + 1 W/F
EB: 2 seats - + 2 W/F
Wafd: 1 seat - 1P
Nour: 1 seat - 1P
NI: 1 Seat - + 1 W/F
Total: - 4 P + 4 W/F
This is I how I understand the process, and I hope it helps.
Thank you very much for this explanation, Mohammad F.
Wasn't the farmer/worker scam introduced by Nasser already, to give the Free Officers coup a bit more legitimacy through this kind of propaganda?
I always wondered how so many NDP deputies/crownies under Mubarak could have been farmers and workers. Interesting the army hasn't done away with the system. Maybe they think it leaves them some more wriggle room.
Wow. Very clearly explained. Thanks so much Mohammad F.
Very interesting, but what a mess.
It can also still change with c) the other parties coming in.
Currently you have
FJP: 3 seats + 18,898 remainder
Egyptian Bloc: 1 seat + 25,322 remainder
al-Wafd: 1 seat + 11,946 remainder
al-Nour: 1 seat + 11,323 remainder
New Independents (Ex-NDP): 0 seats + 28,233 votes
however... let us assume for a second that the number 6 party is the Revolutionary Alliance and they poll at 22'000 and all other parties poll at 18'000 in total... that means the cost per seat would go up by 5'000 votes... and the remainders would as a result look like this:
FJP: 3 seats + 3,898 remainder
Egyptian Bloc: 1 seat + 20,322 remainder
al-Wafd: 1 seat + 6,946 remainder
al-Nour: 1 seat + 6,323 remainder
New Independents (Ex-NDP): 0 seats + 28,233 votes
RCA: 0 seats + 22'000 votes
-> The Egyptian Block would lose their seat to RCA.
BTW... just to make sure no one gets me wrong: I do not have the data either. My numbers are an example! Nevertheless it is important to remember that the total number of votes cast has a massive effect on remainders and therefore all the votes for parties who have no chance themselves can nevertheless change the result.
Oh btw... I just saw this on Jadalliyya:
District #3 (list)--Pending
Final vote count for the party list race in district #3 coming from the Qasr Al-Nil area, shows FJP in the lead with 162,481 votes, followed by the Egyptian Bloc with 73,183 votes,Al-Wafd (59,807), Al-Nour (59,184), the New Independents (28,233) the Revolution Continues Alliance (14,068), Al-Wasat (11,823), and Reform and Development (9,301).
Final vote count coming from other counting sites relevant to this district, including Al-Gamaliyya, Manshiyyat Nasir, Darb Al-Ahmar, Bab Al-Shariyya and Al-Dhaher, shows FJP in the lead with 103,289 votes or 40 percent of the votes, followed by Al-Nour (45,992 or 17 percent), Egyptian Bloc (39,331 or 15 percent), Al-Wafd (36,162 or 14 percent), Reform and Development (16,829 or 6.5 percent).
Aggregate vote count remains pending.
Here is an additional good description:
http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/3361/how-are-seat-winners-determined-in-the-egyptian-el
Is this whole system well understood by the average person who is casting their ballot? Is there a concern that this will create a feeling disenfranchisement and hurt turnout in future election?
I add my thanks to those who did the heavy mental lifting and number crunching.