Where Tunisia is now: exhilarating limbo
Issandr El Amrani | Tunisia Ben Ali has fallen. An Arab dictator of 24 years has turned out to be removable — not by a relative, former ally or military chief, but by a popular insurrection. This is historic first for the entire region and I will come back to it tomorrow.
In the meantime, though, we should not assume that Tunisia has become an instant democracy. The announcement today that Prime Minister Ghanouchi was assuming the presidency has yet to be accepted. Rioting and looting are continuing in the streets of major Tunisian cities, sometimes targeting the homes and businesses of regime cronies, but also of ordinary citizens. Some suspect police desertors to be looting. The situation is chaotic and the army is showing signs of wanting to impose order.
With no clear leadership with the moral authority to get people to go back to their homes, it may be days before the situation resolves itself. What interim president Ghanouchi does tomorrow in his meeting with the opposition — whose very definition will be controversial, notably over whether En-Nahda's Islamists could become part of an interim coalition government — will be crucial. Right now, there does not seem to be any indication that Tunisians are accepting any government as legitimate. Ghanouchi will have to either move quickly to build a credible alliance (here the international community may have a role in confering legitimacy) or step aside for someone who can.
The question of what role there should be for longtime regime cronies such as Mr Ghanouchi is crucial. On the one hand he and others like Foreign Minister Kamel Morjane represent known quantities. They can be seen as managers that might not play a role in future governments. Yet public opinion is now divided on this, weary that if they remain one of the main grievances against the Ben Ali regime — its cronyism and corruption — will not be addressed. Because the Ben Ali network was in business with everyone, this is difficult: few are entirely innocent, especially among the officials who have the capacity to run government in the short-term.
Another alternative, particularly if violence endures, is for the army to take over. It already seems to be moving to impose order, and may enjoy some of the moral authority to end the violence if the pictures of people kissing soldiers on the streets are anything to go by. But that would also alienate some of the protest movement.
The next 24 hours may be as crucial as the preceding 24. What Tunisia needs is a transitional government able to make the streets safe and inspire confidence that the country will be embarking on a genuine democratic transition, not just trading one dictator for another.
Reader Comments (8)
My knowledge of Tunisia is relatively limited. My understanding of the role of the military is that compared to other Arab states it has always been smaller and more limited with a focus on civilian role, but that Ben Ali's military origins somewhat increased their role (though the stats on military expenditure seem to suggest still not as big as many other regional states). I've always had an image of the military as very professional, well-respected, etc. I read Romeo Dallaire's history of his time as head of the UN mission in Rwanda during the genocide and his description of the Tunisian UN contingent and their incredible life-saving bravery was deeply impressive. Then I saw the kisses you mention today from the public and heard scattered reports earlier of contention with Ben Ali with generals apparently not wanting to have their troops open fire on protesters. I can't recall his name, but a Tunisian professor at Georgetown was on Jazeera earlier this evening screaming breathlessly for the military to take over, dissolve the whole government, and be the institution that carries out the transition to free elections (he was calling on specific military units and at least one officer he knew personally to do this). It looks on the surface like a potentially valuable institution able to play an intermediary role. Do you think this is true? It would seem the top political leadership is utterly discredited and that the police and mukhabarat types are hopelessly hated, even if there numbers are too big to ignore.
And then as you mention the opposition. Unions appear to have played a large role here, are they desirous or capable of stepping into political roles? The legal opposition I assume would have been corrupted and the banned opposition highly unknown quantities. Can all these parties form working coalitions if they are all allowed to participate? And then there's the economic issues - can any government satisfy the pent up anger quickly enough to satisfy the angry masses without completely trashing the state and country's financial balances?
Sorry, I'm kind of throwing everything I know out there even if it's not that much. Mostly interested to see if you think those impressions are correct and what key issues you think I'm missing?
"This is historic first for the entire region and I will come back to it tomorrow."
Well, that's not really true. Iran got rid of it's king by popular revolution. Even Iraq did. Both didn't get govenments that can be described as totally sane, yet they had the advantage over Tunisia, that the new governments in both cases were relatively dissolved of the former governments. In Tunisia that doesn't look to be likely, as you stated correctly.
Algeria also got rid of Chadli Benjdide in 1988 by popular insurrection. He stepped down after over 500 demonstrators were shot dead in the streets of Algeria because they wanted to instaure Democracy and get rid of the Junta in power since 1962. Please check your facts first.
Jamal, I think the situation in 1988 has parallels, but Benjedid was not the longstanding dictator of Algeria and the junta remained behind the scenes and eventually reimposed power. So there's a difference.
Jamal: Bendjedid stepped down in 1992 to allow the military to keep control of the country after the parliamentary elections's first round.
Omar: the Iraqi king felld down in Qasim's military coup. The coup itself took place in a broader context of popular unrest and Cold War, but that's quite a different story.
So much for checking the facts.
Benjedid in Algeria was removed bu a junta in 1991. 3years after the riots. Check your facts bfore askung others to check their facts. What happened in Tunisia is unique in the History of Arabia, africa and the arab world. Viva tunisia. Ichbin a tunisian
Sorry. 1992 was Chadli's removal (by his proteges). All the Arab regimes are freaking out. Kadhafi, Moubarak, Bouteflika, Assad, Abdullah of Jordan. and on. Viva The youths of Tunisia.
If not for the riots of Oct 1988 and all that ensued in Algeria, Chadli would still have been in power. So the riots had a direct effect on his departure.
Hassan, I am glad for Tunisia. It was about time you recover your lost dignity and honor. You have a lot to be thankful for. You can at least learn from the Algerian experience and avoid the mistakes.