Tuesday
Aug082006
Bernard Lewis: Armegeddon in two weeks
By 
Issandr El Amrani | Academia Iran US
Issandr El Amrani | Academia Iran US
Darling of neo-cons Bernard Lewis, writing in the Wall Street Journal, pinpoints the precise date of the Iranian destruction of Israel and the end of times:
In Islam, as in Judaism and Christianity, there are certain beliefs concerning the cosmic struggle at the end of time -- Gog and Magog, anti-Christ, Armageddon, and for Shiite Muslims, the long awaited return of the Hidden Imam, ending in the final victory of the forces of good over evil, however these may be defined. Mr. Ahmadinejad and his followers clearly believe that this time is now, and that the terminal struggle has already begun and is indeed well advanced. It may even have a date, indicated by several references by the Iranian president to giving his final answer to the U.S. about nuclear development by Aug. 22. This was at first reported as "by the end of August," but Mr. Ahmadinejad's statement was more precise.It really seems that while dealing with a complex and multi-dimensioned foreign policy issues, all the neo-cons want to do is what they did with Iraq: clutch at straws, invent bogeymen and fabricate lies. That Bernard Lewis, a man still appreciated even by his political enemies as a scholar of some note, has sunk to scare-mongering in lieu of policy advocacy is sad and scary.
What is the significance of Aug. 22? This year, Aug. 22 corresponds, in the Islamic calendar, to the 27th day of the month of Rajab of the year 1427. This, by tradition, is the night when many Muslims commemorate the night flight of the prophet Muhammad on the winged horse Buraq, first to "the farthest mosque," usually identified with Jerusalem, and then to heaven and back (c.f., Koran XVII.1). This might well be deemed an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel and if necessary of the world. It is far from certain that Mr. Ahmadinejad plans any such cataclysmic events precisely for Aug. 22. But it would be wise to bear the possibility in mind.
Reader Comments (39)
If Ahmadinejad controlled the military, I would worry.
I'm no Iran hand, but the experts agree the Iranians won't even have nuclear weapons for years, nevermind Aug. 22!
And not to mention that history (both recent and old) shows that Iran is quite pragmatic when it comes to their foreign policy (i.e. they probably would not invite their own destruction).
Does the full article say that?
This is idiotic reasoning based on false erudition. So Lewis knows how to convert dates. Pat him on the head and mix him a martini- he must be tired after all that exertion. Perhaps he can use similar apocolyptic reasoning to explain certain decisions by the Bush Administration such as their stance on Iran and the dithering on Lebanon.
Essentially, yes. The full thing is pasted below.
August 22
By BERNARD LEWIS
August 8, 2006; Page A10
During the Cold War, both sides possessed weapons of mass destruction, but neither side used them, deterred by what was known as MAD, mutual assured destruction. Similar constraints have no doubt prevented their use in the confrontation between India and Pakistan. In our own day a new such confrontation seems to be looming between a nuclear-armed Iran and its favorite enemies, named by the late Ayatollah Khomeini as the Great Satan and the Little Satan, i.e., the United States and Israel. Against the U.S. the bombs might be delivered by terrorists, a method having the advantage of bearing no return address. Against Israel, the target is small enough to attempt obliteration by direct bombardment.
It seems increasingly likely that the Iranians either have or very soon will have nuclear weapons at their disposal, thanks to their own researches (which began some 15 years ago), to some of their obliging neighbors, and to the ever-helpful rulers of North Korea. The language used by Iranian President Ahmadinejad would seem to indicate the reality and indeed the imminence of this threat.
Would the same constraints, the same fear of mutual assured destruction, restrain a nuclear-armed Iran from using such weapons against the U.S. or against Israel?
* * *
There is a radical difference between the Islamic Republic of Iran and other governments with nuclear weapons. This difference is expressed in what can only be described as the apocalyptic worldview of Iran's present rulers. This worldview and expectation, vividly expressed in speeches, articles and even schoolbooks, clearly shape the perception and therefore the policies of Ahmadinejad and his disciples.
Muhammad's night flight on Buraq.
Even in the past it was clear that terrorists claiming to act in the name of Islam had no compunction in slaughtering large numbers of fellow Muslims. A notable example was the blowing up of the American embassies in East Africa in 1998, killing a few American diplomats and a much larger number of uninvolved local passersby, many of them Muslims. There were numerous other Muslim victims in the various terrorist attacks of the last 15 years.
The phrase "Allah will know his own" is usually used to explain such apparently callous unconcern; it means that while infidel, i.e., non-Muslim, victims will go to a well-deserved punishment in hell, Muslims will be sent straight to heaven. According to this view, the bombers are in fact doing their Muslim victims a favor by giving them a quick pass to heaven and its delights -- the rewards without the struggles of martyrdom. School textbooks tell young Iranians to be ready for a final global struggle against an evil enemy, named as the U.S., and to prepare themselves for the privileges of martyrdom.
A direct attack on the U.S., though possible, is less likely in the immediate future. Israel is a nearer and easier target, and Mr. Ahmadinejad has given indication of thinking along these lines. The Western observer would immediately think of two possible deterrents. The first is that an attack that wipes out Israel would almost certainly wipe out the Palestinians too. The second is that such an attack would evoke a devastating reprisal from Israel against Iran, since one may surely assume that the Israelis have made the necessary arrangements for a counterstrike even after a nuclear holocaust in Israel.
The first of these possible deterrents might well be of concern to the Palestinians -- but not apparently to their fanatical champions in the Iranian government. The second deterrent -- the threat of direct retaliation on Iran -- is, as noted, already weakened by the suicide or martyrdom complex that plagues parts of the Islamic world today, without parallel in other religions, or for that matter in the Islamic past. This complex has become even more important at the present day, because of this new apocalyptic vision.
In Islam, as in Judaism and Christianity, there are certain beliefs concerning the cosmic struggle at the end of time -- Gog and Magog, anti-Christ, Armageddon, and for Shiite Muslims, the long awaited return of the Hidden Imam, ending in the final victory of the forces of good over evil, however these may be defined. Mr. Ahmadinejad and his followers clearly believe that this time is now, and that the terminal struggle has already begun and is indeed well advanced. It may even have a date, indicated by several references by the Iranian president to giving his final answer to the U.S. about nuclear development by Aug. 22. This was at first reported as "by the end of August," but Mr. Ahmadinejad's statement was more precise.
What is the significance of Aug. 22? This year, Aug. 22 corresponds, in the Islamic calendar, to the 27th day of the month of Rajab of the year 1427. This, by tradition, is the night when many Muslims commemorate the night flight of the prophet Muhammad on the winged horse Buraq, first to "the farthest mosque," usually identified with Jerusalem, and then to heaven and back (c.f., Koran XVII.1). This might well be deemed an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel and if necessary of the world. It is far from certain that Mr. Ahmadinejad plans any such cataclysmic events precisely for Aug. 22. But it would be wise to bear the possibility in mind.
A passage from the Ayatollah Khomeini, quoted in an 11th-grade Iranian schoolbook, is revealing. "I am decisively announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [i.e., the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against their whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom which is martyrdom. Either we shake one another's hands in joy at the victory of Islam in the world, or all of us will turn to eternal life and martyrdom. In both cases, victory and success are ours."
In this context, mutual assured destruction, the deterrent that worked so well during the Cold War, would have no meaning. At the end of time, there will be general destruction anyway. What will matter will be the final destination of the dead -- hell for the infidels, and heaven for the believers. For people with this mindset, MAD is not a constraint; it is an inducement.
How then can one confront such an enemy, with such a view of life and death? Some immediate precautions are obviously possible and necessary. In the long term, it would seem that the best, perhaps the only hope is to appeal to those Muslims, Iranians, Arabs and others who do not share these apocalyptic perceptions and aspirations, and feel as much threatened, indeed even more threatened, than we are. There must be many such, probably even a majority in the lands of Islam. Now is the time for them to save their countries, their societies and their religion from the madness of MAD.
Mr. Lewis, professor emeritus at Princeton, is the author, most recently, of "From Babel to Dragomans: Interpreting the Middle East" (Oxford University Press, 2004).
Uh-huh. In context, the excerpt is even nuttier.
This isn't my area of expertise, but why is a nut like this considered any kind of scholar? He's clearly a delusional paranoid.
At this point, I'd say he's trading on scholar achievements from the early 1980's and before.
Errr....what is the significance of 22 August? It is the last day of the Iranian month of MORDAD. I was writing something about this deadline at work, and it took me all of five minutes to find out why they had chosen this date. This doesn't prove that Mr Ahmadinejad isn't planning 'cataclysmic events'. But it does show either that Lewis's research skills are declining with age, or that he is just...a scaremonger.
Issandr, yes, they won't have nuclear weapons... but who needs nuclear weapons if za MAHDI returns?!
He's a very old man and intellectually not what he once was (re: This isn’t my area of expertise, but why is a nut like this considered any kind of scholar? He’s clearly a delusional paranoid.)
His older scholarship is interesting, but he is a historian and in essence a medaievalist. It speaks to the thinness of scholarship that a medaievalist is quoted regarding modern events.
i believe over the last few years, Mr. Lewis has developed hate islam - hate iran syndrome. may b its just the old age (i hope so) or else this can be just termed as intellectual bankkruptcy or may b just another way of hogging attention.
whatever it is , its in bad taste and very unbecoming of an ex princeton prof.
Well, there have been news reports of Iranians being killed in Lebanon.....
Senile old bigot. He used to be much better at clothing his bigotry in academickese.
His ilk will always quote religious nuts as though their most outrageous statements represent or predict the political behaviour of their communities. Rather like taking Bush's remarks about Catholics not going to heaven or Billy Graham's remarks about Muslims or the Crusade remarks that US military officer made in the early days of the Afghanistan war and claiming that these indicate that the American political leadership believes it is fighting a crusade against Muslims. People tend to forget that Khomeini behaved fairly rationally in Iran's war with Iraq and had no messianic qualms about drawing back from that conflict.
Lewis' ideas about Islamists and those who believe they are defending Islam being "irrational" and immune to conventional military logic or deterrence are sadly common among US policymakers and even security studies and IR scholars these days. These are the people who know nothing about the Middle East and are desperately looking for a way to get on the terrorism bandwagon to stay relevant. They lap up that Paul Berman fellow and I'm sure they love Lewis too.
Seems like the TV programs, CNN and others, are going all out to prepare the People of the United States for W W III, or theUnited States' invasion of another country in the near future. The Bush Adminstration and the Press gave us much false information prior to our invasion of Iraq that the a lot of people, myself included, will not trust this adminstration or any of the other elected officials that have supported our invasion of Iraq. The Military industrial Complex and the Oil Companies will do anything to keep a war going some place in the world. The in of all wars (August 22) could be peace if the leaders of the world really wanted peace.
Lol, end of the world theory? Funny enough, the 22th of august, is my birthday. Fun fun, I was checking wiki O pedia, and I found that, not just the Mahdi will return, but Jesus as well :P And both will fight against the forces of evil, then then, wth ... Sounds like a good movie plot -.-
Doubtless a Muslim edit to reek-o-pedia. The New Testament text concerning Christ's return says that no man will know the day or the hour. And the idea that Christ would be allied with the devil (any other so-called "prophet") is anathema in Biblical doctrine.
[...] You can read the full article in the WSJ (if you are a subscriber) or at WorldNetDaily or you can go here to read the article and the liberal Leftist responses. [...]
Someone please tell me where the # 14 fits in with 1427? I understand the 27 but why 14?
From the Qu'ran, its the dajal, a devil stuff, which will return first. After much destruction, then the madhi, and Jesus, will return. After which, the madhi, will give his forces to our liege lord, Jesus, then bla bla bla ... Good wins. LoL, anyway, I don't really believe in all that bs, but it was quite funny to read.
I know something ridiculous. Islamic fascists are going to run planes into the world trade center and they are going to collapse to the ground. "What? No way. You're delusional. And a bigot."
Also, Hitler is going to slaughter millions of Jews. "No way, it's the modern age. We would KNOW that was going on and we would stop it."
Iran doesn't need to produce it's own nuclear weapon, they can buy one from North Korea.
how about, millions of muslims will get slaughtered, but hey, who cares, I mean, they got what they deserved even if only 100 out of those millions who died actually deserved it .... another one for your list jessica -.-
Will get slaughtered if what? My post did not mention a certain course of action to take. However, I do think it is prudent to understand what could happen and be on high alert, and to not assume that Iran will take a similar path to what is has taken in the past. Because now, there is a different leader in power, with a different, and strongly anti-semitic, anti-american ideology. I think that would make him a bigot to the highest degree.
I am a Christian who cares deeply about Muslims and who morns for their sufferings. I morn for the misunderstandings that exist between the West and the Mideast. I also morn for innocent kids who's minds are warped by lies before they are given the chance to learn how to think for themselves. This can happen anywhere, not just in the Muslim community and it is a terrible tragedy.
A warning of things that could happen. If you will not have an open mind here, that what is it going to take to get your attention?
Most of you all say he is a nut job but not one clear thought on your own as to what can happen. Do you really think we are safe? Do you really think if we put our gun down first others will not shoot? What are you going to say and who are you going to point to if it does happen? I know, you will be first in line to bitch, when you could have reacted sooner.
How about now at this time, this week a plot to blow more of US out of the sky? It isn't a political ploy, it is real life and one day it will come to an end. What kind of an end do you want for you and your kids?
Everyone in the world do not play fair, they do not uphold our laws, they think they are justified.
So go ahead and plant your head up your A __ just like those who watched as the WTC fell saying, How did they do this, why, why did no one connect the dots?
Here is a big dot right in front of you and time is ticking away.
When it comes down to us or them, I vote US.