5:06PM
Election Polls
By 
Charles Levinson | Egypt
Charles Levinson | Egypt
Here's a roundup of a few internet polls on the Egyptian presidential elections:
Shebab Misr (2264 responses):
Ayman Nour -63%;
Hosni Mubarak - 21%;
Nomaan Gomaa - 12%
Egyptian Referendum (1591 responses):
Hosni Mubarak - 39.66%;
Ayman Nour - 28.16%;
Nomaan Gomaa - 15.78%;
Boycotting - 10.56%
From Al Waai Al Misri (2706 responses):
Ayman Nour - 31%;
Hosni Mubarak - 11%;
Nomaan Gomaa - 11%;
Boycotting - 37%
The Coptic run Watani Newspaper (233 responses):
Hosni Mubarak - 45%;
Ayman Nour - 34%;
Nomaan Goma - 17%
Al Jazeera Poll (32,197 responses):
Do you think the candidates in the Egyptian presidential elections have an equal chance in the election campaigns?
Yes - 6.9%;
No - 93.1%
I'm not exaclty sure what conclusions you can draw from these most unscientific samples. They seem to confirm that the race is indeed between Ayman Nour and Hosni Mubarak, and that the Wafd's Nomaan Gomaa is a distant third. That being said, most people expect Nomaan Gomaa to place second in the elections after all is said and done, simply because the government won't want Ayman Nour to be the alternative to Mubarak.
The polls above in which Nour is beating Mubarak, Al Waai Al Masry and Shebab Misr, are opposition Web sites, and one would expect that most of the people who read them would be inclined to oppose Mubarak. I don't know much about the Egyptian Referendum Web site, but at first glance it appears to be fairly non-partisan. Though the Watani poll includes a small sample, the strong showing for Mubarak in it is perhaps a reflection of the Pope's pro-Mubarak stance.
Shebab Misr (2264 responses):
Ayman Nour -63%;
Hosni Mubarak - 21%;
Nomaan Gomaa - 12%
Egyptian Referendum (1591 responses):
Hosni Mubarak - 39.66%;
Ayman Nour - 28.16%;
Nomaan Gomaa - 15.78%;
Boycotting - 10.56%
From Al Waai Al Misri (2706 responses):
Ayman Nour - 31%;
Hosni Mubarak - 11%;
Nomaan Gomaa - 11%;
Boycotting - 37%
The Coptic run Watani Newspaper (233 responses):
Hosni Mubarak - 45%;
Ayman Nour - 34%;
Nomaan Goma - 17%
Al Jazeera Poll (32,197 responses):
Do you think the candidates in the Egyptian presidential elections have an equal chance in the election campaigns?
Yes - 6.9%;
No - 93.1%
I'm not exaclty sure what conclusions you can draw from these most unscientific samples. They seem to confirm that the race is indeed between Ayman Nour and Hosni Mubarak, and that the Wafd's Nomaan Gomaa is a distant third. That being said, most people expect Nomaan Gomaa to place second in the elections after all is said and done, simply because the government won't want Ayman Nour to be the alternative to Mubarak.
The polls above in which Nour is beating Mubarak, Al Waai Al Masry and Shebab Misr, are opposition Web sites, and one would expect that most of the people who read them would be inclined to oppose Mubarak. I don't know much about the Egyptian Referendum Web site, but at first glance it appears to be fairly non-partisan. Though the Watani poll includes a small sample, the strong showing for Mubarak in it is perhaps a reflection of the Pope's pro-Mubarak stance.
Reader Comments (9)
don't forget this most important http://www.manalaa.net/eblis_poll" rel="nofollow"> poll
http://beyondnormal.blogspot.com" rel="nofollow">My poll results are closest to Wa'y masry,
Although I had less only 80 inputs so far (I don't have the high traffic they do) but I am the only poll that includes spoiling the vote!
Nour 36%
Gomaa 16%
Mubarak 11%
Boycott 18%
Spoil ballot 11%
I'll appreciate if you mention it,
and I also have http://beyondnormal.blogspot.com/2005/08/blog-post_112473552925069671.html" rel="nofollow">strong criticism against AlJazeera childish poll
Also a smart poll by Amal el omma http://www.amlalommah.net/poll/vures.asp?id=51" rel="nofollow">"The nation's hope" puts Ayman Nour as the most likely (72%) to compete by Mubarak...
Finally, check http://ghandy.blogspot.com" rel="nofollow">Ghandy's poll about a presidential debate
I'd take the results of these unscientific polls anyday against the results of the real election.
What's interesting is that those who participate in those polls would probably not vote in the real elections. A virtual voice is worth more than your real one!
Charles, your piece on Egyptian blogs in the Christian Science Monitor is published today in Akhbar AlYom in Arabic! Well, its not exactly your piece, they've changed most of it, removed your name, and just put the source, CSM!
In Egyptian Elections, Voter Apathy and Government Mischief
Eyptians today have the chance to vote in the country's first contested presidential election, but turnout is low and the opportunities for government shenanigans are many, Reuters reports. The Christian Science Monitor yesterday reported on the showd...
In Egyptian Elections, Voter Apathy and Government Mischief
Eyptians today have the chance to vote in the country's first contested presidential election, but turnout is low and the opportunities for government shenanigans are many, Reuters reports. The Christian Science Monitor yesterday reported on the showd...
Iwant see our democracy real as any country allover the world no cheating and not fage .
CONGRATULATIONS for all of your guys in general
ESPECIALLY to my brother and close friend Mahmood Atea mabrook thats all from god and (the ekhlas)after the election I hope all of you will work for our lovely country Egypt as the modern country majority and manority agree together to grow up the country level whatever the party is, leave the discrimination away from each other all of you (444Elected )+(10Selected)
represent all part, religion and opinion even if you disagree with it
because you represent 70 MILLION EGYPTIAN god bless all of you congratulations to Osama Gadoo, Sobhy Saleh, Hasan Mohamed, Mostafa Mohamed Mostafa and all names good luck