12:13PM
Saad Eddin Ibrahim in the WSJ
By 
Charles Levinson | Egypt
Charles Levinson | Egypt
Saad Eddin Ibrahim has an editorial in today's Wall Street Journal in which he concludes that the recent events in Egypt, Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine "may well usher in an Arab Spring of freedom, so very long overdue." Here are a few lengthy excerpts.
Despite the historical decision, I don't think anybody is expecting a competitive presidential election this September. And, as Saad points out later in his editorial, similar election law changes in Tunisia simply produced sham elections of a different stripe. So even if the opposition could get their act together and field a feasible candidate, there is no guarantee that he would be given a fair shot. But I like Saad's point here that now a greater possibility exists for the regime to lose control over the process. Were a candidate with a measure of popularity to run and lose in elections that were perceived as flawed by the people... well, that's what happened in Ukraine, and it would never have happened had those elections not included multiple candidates.
Like Issandr, Saad seems to be linking the events in Lebanon with events here in Egypt. What's going on in Lebanon is surely having a ripple effect. When was the last time mass demonstrations toppled an Arab government?
As for the Egyptians no longer being passive and afraid to act... perhaps. But certainly the handful of small demonstrations we've seen thus far don't convince me.
Saad touches the other principal demand of the opposition with regards to constitutional change: term limits. The other sought after change, which he doesn't mention, are greater constraints on the powers of the executive.
The surprise decision by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to propose a constitutional amendment, opening up the process of electing the president by direct competitive balloting, may well be a giant step for democracy in Egypt and the Arab World. Western readers used to pluralistic democracy may find it hard to understand what a potentially huge shift this will be in a country used to imposed military rulers for over 50 years.
Many area specialists have long maintained that democratization in the Middle East will not get far until Egypt is fully engaged in the process. And Egypt could not truly set out on a path of democratization without first amending its constitution -- to downsize the pharaonic powers of its president and set limits on his term in office. (Mr. Mubarak is already into his 24th year.) So the announcement is an important first step, one that the regime may assume it will be able to control to its own advantage, but which may not be that easy to contain once people begin to feel empowered. The genie is out of the bottle.
Despite the historical decision, I don't think anybody is expecting a competitive presidential election this September. And, as Saad points out later in his editorial, similar election law changes in Tunisia simply produced sham elections of a different stripe. So even if the opposition could get their act together and field a feasible candidate, there is no guarantee that he would be given a fair shot. But I like Saad's point here that now a greater possibility exists for the regime to lose control over the process. Were a candidate with a measure of popularity to run and lose in elections that were perceived as flawed by the people... well, that's what happened in Ukraine, and it would never have happened had those elections not included multiple candidates.
At any rate, it is not only Egypt that is now embarking on the road of democracy in this troubled region. Turkey at one end of the Middle East and Morocco at the other are already well on the way. The real groundswell this time seems to have come from the close timing and positive outcomes of recent elections in Iraq, Palestine and to a lesser degree in Saudi Arabia. The unprecedented demonstrations against Syrian occupation of Lebanon following the assassination of its former prime minister show no signs of abating, and Egyptian opposition groups have staged increasingly bold marches and other forms of civil disobedience in the last few weeks. The catalyst for their anger was the arrest and detention of opposition leader Ayman Nour at the end of January. That heavy-handed act reinvigorated the homegrown "Kifaya," or Enough, movement against further rule by the Mubarak regime. Suddenly the popular wisdom that Egyptians are passive and afraid to act did not seem to be holding up. An alliance of local, regional and international forces is joining forces against tyranny-as-usual on the banks of the Nile.
Like Issandr, Saad seems to be linking the events in Lebanon with events here in Egypt. What's going on in Lebanon is surely having a ripple effect. When was the last time mass demonstrations toppled an Arab government?
As for the Egyptians no longer being passive and afraid to act... perhaps. But certainly the handful of small demonstrations we've seen thus far don't convince me.
We assume that President Mubarak is more serious. As a measure of sincerity, he needs to order the immediate release of the ailing opposition leader Ayman Nour, and take steps to terminate the 24-year-long state of emergency, which effectively prevents political campaigning to take place. We call on him to endorse term limits of no more than two successive five-year terms. Equally needed are confidence-building measures in a free political process that include open and equal access to the media, currently state-controlled. I announced that I would contest this upcoming presidential election as a way of opening debate on these needed reforms, but I would gladly go back to my role as a private citizen once guaranteed a free and open election this fall.
Saad touches the other principal demand of the opposition with regards to constitutional change: term limits. The other sought after change, which he doesn't mention, are greater constraints on the powers of the executive.
If seriously implemented, these steps will transform Mr. Mubarak's lasting legacy to his people. Along with events in Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine, it may well usher in an Arab Spring of freedom, so very long overdue
Reader Comments (8)
With all respect to Saad Ibrahim....
We are not seeing is an Arab "spring". Its an adjustment to maintain authoritarianism.
Iraq, Palestine, Egypt are most certainly not getting democratization done. Iraqi elections were not held for Iraqis, they were held for the West. In Palestine, Abu Mazen looking to consolidate through a peace agreement, he is, after all, "thirsty" for peace. People who think Mubarak's announcement was a genuine step for freedom need a check in with reality.
Lebanon is not as unified as the Western media report. The groups are relying on false pretenses and the promise of US-French support, which they have now but in no way means its permanent. Its all ideology and opportunism. Besides, even if Syria withdraws, its influence will be considerable. You don't reverse years in a two week period.
As in the end of the Damascus Spring in 2002, the weather skipped summer and fall and went straight to Winter. The same will happen with the Arab world despite the remaking and redressing of these regimes.
I agree with one world. on the other side I am really getting sick of the people looking at the bunch of fascists and opportunists and war criminals leading the so called opposition in Lebanon as being freedom fighters and reformists.
And in Iraq I see nothing but collaboration and elections under bayonet and a sectarian lead population that is following some bearded idiot into hell if would ask so. And in Palestine We have the right to surrender, so we are happy.....
Just Nevermind..... its too gloomy I know , but its sometimes hard to be realistic, I wish i was more naive...
Being a dual citizen, it seems unlikely he would even be allowed to contest the election. Who knows though; parliamentarians are barred from being dual citizens, but I don't think government ministers are.
i agree with one world as well. and i'm tired of hearing freedom is on the march. has anyone seen friedman's latest harping about the bush invasion of iraq being tantamount to napoleon at alexandria? fat lot of good that did the region in the end. of course, that is the nuance we'd expect from him.
the "reforms" mubarak has initiated are as limited as the parliment wants them to be, with the 1,000,000 LE reserve and the need for approval. while Saad has a point regarding the potential for loss of control of the procedure, the thing that egypt and the arab world has that ukraine did not are the all powerful 'emergency laws.' not to mention george soros's money and 10 years of institution building.
even if all candidates were welcomed to the debate (ikhwan al muslimin?) the power mubarak has over the state television and the press is overwhelming, and i see little space in the government mouthpiece for the opposition to publicize itself.
this is simply a means of legitimizing mubarak's power. if mubarak were serious about reform, this would have been implemented earlier. the limited time before the election ensures that the opposition will not be organized, and while united under kafaya, there are too many competing interests to provide a united front againt the ndp. the chattering class of cairo in numerical terms is simply not large enough in and of itself to swing the vote. mubarak has looked at the numbers and they are on his side. what's the difference between a 99.5% win and a 70% win? one is an obvious farce, the other keeps bush off his back, the press in awe, and forestalls real reform.
as for lebanon... are they sure this is what they want? a population that has not ruled itself for decades is now clamoring for self-determination, but do they have the institutions necessary to preclude a descent into factionalism? as much as the lebanese rightfully resent the syrian presence, there is much to be said for the grunt work syria does in securing stability within the country. i'm not suggesting that they face threats from israel any longer, but what happens when the troops withdraw? are the lebanese forces prepared to take on the headache that is hizbullah?
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Are you guys still alive?
Yes, barely. I'll be back later today with new posts -- have been super busy with the money work. Josh is in Syria and out of contact, Charles is very busy with school. We'll all be back soon.
Thanks for the update, Issandr. One begins to wonder, in these times, if you'd all been scooped up by the Intelligence services and whisked to Imbaba for some truth-serum fuelled interrogations. Istakhfar-allah. Five days with no word made me wonder....
And if you see Maria Golia around, tell her the Dove says hello (Leila in California)