Sunday
Feb202005
G-8 Democracy/Reform Conference Cancelled
By 
Josh Stacher | Egypt
Josh Stacher | Egypt
The G-8 sponsored conference that was to be held at the Arab League HQ in Cairo's Tahrir square has been delayed indefinitely, announced Egyptian FM Ahmed Abul-Ghait yesterday. The conference was scheduled for the first week in March.
According to an AP story, it was postponed because of the Egyptian government's unwillingness to backdown over Ayman Nor's detention. US Sec of State Condi Rice more or less hinted she was considering not coming to Cairo for the conference if Nor remained in detention. He is currently being held for for forty-five days while the government insists criminal charges over forging al-Ghad party application papers are investigated.
While the US seems to be sticking to its guns so as not to appear out of step with its 'freedom' rhetoric, delaying the conference may actually indicate that some US-Egyptian agreement has been reached despite the difference of opinion.
The Egyptian government has too much invested domestically to call off the case. Also, election season is fast approaching and Nor's arrest will hurt al-Ghad's showing in those parliamantary elections. Meanwhile, the Bush admin has been taken a beating in the US press over its dealings with Egypt (via the Nor arrest). So perhaps this was the most amicable solution between the countries.
I don't suspect this will lead to a larger rift. Mubarak's annual trip to visit the US president is scheduled for April. If Bush keeps the appointment and welcomes Mubarak then the conclusion that can be drawn is that Nor will likely spend a fair amount of time infront of the courts in the near-future, Egyptian-Israeli-US cooperation will continue, and US proposals for democratization will take a backseat to other regional developments.
Either way, this latest twist will have little effect on the continuing oppositon and protests by the Kafaya movement.
According to an AP story, it was postponed because of the Egyptian government's unwillingness to backdown over Ayman Nor's detention. US Sec of State Condi Rice more or less hinted she was considering not coming to Cairo for the conference if Nor remained in detention. He is currently being held for for forty-five days while the government insists criminal charges over forging al-Ghad party application papers are investigated.
While the US seems to be sticking to its guns so as not to appear out of step with its 'freedom' rhetoric, delaying the conference may actually indicate that some US-Egyptian agreement has been reached despite the difference of opinion.
The Egyptian government has too much invested domestically to call off the case. Also, election season is fast approaching and Nor's arrest will hurt al-Ghad's showing in those parliamantary elections. Meanwhile, the Bush admin has been taken a beating in the US press over its dealings with Egypt (via the Nor arrest). So perhaps this was the most amicable solution between the countries.
I don't suspect this will lead to a larger rift. Mubarak's annual trip to visit the US president is scheduled for April. If Bush keeps the appointment and welcomes Mubarak then the conclusion that can be drawn is that Nor will likely spend a fair amount of time infront of the courts in the near-future, Egyptian-Israeli-US cooperation will continue, and US proposals for democratization will take a backseat to other regional developments.
Either way, this latest twist will have little effect on the continuing oppositon and protests by the Kafaya movement.
Reader Comments (6)
There were also reports that Aboul Gheit had told Rice that Nour would be released soon. There's a lot of contradictory information on the Aboul Gheit trip. I think that if the reform conference was cancelled or indefinitely postponed that would suggest that Nour is in for the long haul -- unless there is some other reason? After all, this conference could have been an opportunity for the G8 to push the GMEI (or whatever its successor is called). Perhaps it would have been too embarrassing to do so in a country where not only politicians are jailed on dubious charges, but where it also seems clear that an unpopular president who has already ruled for a quarter-century is going to be re-elected in a sham referendum and where it appear his son is being groomed for succession too.
The US is either incapable of effecting change in Egypt, or does not really care about reform in Egypt! Every now and then the US issues meaningless proclamations that actually end up hurting home-grown reformers. If the US cannot pressure someone like Mubarak who is entirely dependent on the US for maintaing himself in office (in a very poor country devoid of natural resources that could help the regime be self-sufficient for a while), what hope is there that the US could effect change in a primitive, but rich country like Saudia Arabia?
Of course, the Egyptians have to effect change for themselves.
Your point about KSA is an interesting one, because the funny thing is that the Saudis at least appear to want to convince Americans that they are reforming -- they take out ads, they sponsor conferences, panels, etc. Mubarak doesn't even bother with any of that!
Praktike,
Indeed Mubarak seems to be isuueing one challenge after another to Bush's proclamations. I wonder what is it that makes Mubarak so bold in his dismissive responses to Bush's appeals in two very public forums in a row '"the last two State of the Union"? And what explains Bush's sheepish response? One cannot say it is becasue control so much oil for example. Also, one cannot say it is to avoid a war between Egypt and Israel, since there is a treaty between the two countries and Mubarak is not stupid enough to use that as a leverage. What is it?
Because Mubarak is instrumental to US policy in Palestine, once more a lesson in interdependency between the Arab countries hence the need for an Arab aware movement for change not a naive one that believes Egypt is some island in the pacific
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